Geopolitics in South East Asia In, early 2026, Southeast Asia serves as a high-stakes arena where great power competition, internal political transitions, and maritime friction converge.
1. The Philippines' Pivotal ASEAN Chairmanship
As the 2026 ASEAN Chair, the Philippines is prioritizing a tougher collective stance on maritime security.
- Arbitral Anniversary: Manila is leveraging the 10th anniversary of the 2016 South China Sea arbitral ruling to press for international law adherence.
- Code of Conduct (COC): Diplomatic efforts have intensified to finalize a long-delayed legally binding COC with China by a target deadline within 2026.
- Security Drills: The U.S. continues to signal its presence, recently conducting live-fire drills with the USS Abraham Lincoln in January 2026.
2. Internal Political "Triple Transitions"
Three key mainland nations are undergoing leadership shifts that will reshape regional foreign policy:
: A general election scheduled for February 8, 2026, is taking place against a backdrop of resurgent border tensions with Cambodia.
: The military junta’s phased election plan, largely viewed as a "sham" by the international community, remains a source of deep ASEAN internal division.
3. Geoeconomics: "Trade War 2.0" and Digital Integration
The region is navigating a "G2 flux" where neither Washington nor Beijing holds uncontested dominance.
- Supply Chain Resilience: High U.S. tariffs (reaching 145% on some Chinese goods in 2025) have accelerated the "China+1" strategy, with and seeing double-digit growth in exports as trade is rerouted.
- Digital Economy: ASEAN is pushing to sign the Digital Economy Framework Agreement (DEFA) in 2026, aiming to harmonize regional rules for AI and digital trade.
- Green Transition: Geopolitical competition over critical minerals like nickel and rare earths is driving new industrial subsidies and trade patterns in and .
4. Expanding the Bloc
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